橡胶特刊-202601号

Analysis of Natural Rubber Market Prices

Dry Rubber

In January, natural rubber prices showed a fluctuating upward trend. Rising raw material prices, coupled with improved overseas demand and strong restocking intentions from processing plants, pushed Thai latex to 57.6 baht, an increase of 3.4 baht from the beginning of the month.

The significant increase in butadiene rubber, a substitute product, also stimulated natural rubber prices to some extent. Imports maintained an upward trend, while inventory continued its seasonal accumulation. The end-user market was lukewarm; after tire companies restocked before New Year's Day, January saw a focus on digesting inventory and making small-scale restocking at low prices.

Natural Latex

In January, the average spot price of imported Thai bulk natural latex in Zhejiang, China, fluctuated upwards. Futures prices continued to rise throughout the month, Hainan production areas completely ceased tapping, and Southeast Asian production areas gradually transitioned to reduced or ceased production. Rising raw material and cost prices meant traders lacked profit margins for import restocking, and seasonally reduced shipments to sales areas were also favorable for natural latex prices. However, downstream product manufacturers' demand followed slowly, with weak pre-holiday stockpiling intentions, only purchasing at low prices to meet immediate needs, which dragged down rubber prices.

Market Outlook:

1. In February, some producing areas will gradually enter the off-season for rubber tapping, leading to an expected contraction in raw material output.

2. The operating rate of sample tire manufacturers is expected to decline in February.

3. Natural rubber social inventories are expected to continue accumulating in February.

2. Rubber Market Price Comparison This Month

International Market

Domestic Market

3. Rubber Market Price Analysis Charts

Natural Rubber Supply Analysis

1. Thai Producing Areas

In January, Thai latex prices shifted upwards. Rubber trees in northern Thailand began to shed their leaves, marking the end of the tapping season. Tapping in northeastern Thailand is expected to continue until around early February, leading to a decrease in daily latex collection at factories. During this period, Thai factories had restocking needs for smoked sheet rubber, resulting in a diversion of latex and a continued rise in procurement prices. Improved demand from the EU, increased arbitrage positions in the domestic market, and improved factory orders drove up cup lump prices. 1. **Thailand Rubber Production Area:** Thai factories generally maintain raw material inventories for 1-2 months, with some exceeding 3 months. Factories are gradually stockpiling raw materials for the off-season. Secondary traders report limited raw material reserves, with factory shipments scheduled for August/September.

2. Vietnam Production Area

In January, Vietnam's rubber-producing regions gradually entered the final stage of the seasonal off-season tapping. Raw material dry content declined, and latex production decreased significantly compared to the peak season, leading to a continued contraction in supply. Supported by reduced raw material output and factory stockpiling, raw material prices remained high throughout January, transitioning from a steady rise at the beginning of the month to a period of high-level fluctuations towards the end. Processing plant production lines showed significant divergence.

Exports of 3L rubber to China increased significantly, with shipments accelerating compared to the previous month. Latex shipments to China slowed due to insufficient domestic acceptance of high prices. As the off-season approaches, raw material supplies will remain tight after Vietnam's production areas completely cease tapping, providing strong short-term price support.

3. Yunnan Production Area

Yunnan's rubber production areas completely ceased tapping in January.

4. Hainan Production Area

In January, the area of ​​rubber tapping in Hainan gradually expanded, with only a few scattered rubber plantations remaining on the western route. Tapping continued in some southern areas. Private processing plants largely ceased operations, while some state-owned processing plants continued production. According to surveys, due to reduced production during this tapping season and consistently poor factory profits in the earlier period, the overall winter reserves of concentrated latex in the region were lower than in previous years. By the end of the month, Hainan production had completely ceased tapping; as the end of the tapping season approached, raw material prices in Hainan fluctuated only slightly.

1. Imports and Exports

According to customs data, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical classifications, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) in December reached 803,400 tons, an increase of 24.84% month-on-month and 25.4% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 is projected to reach 6,675,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.94%.

In December, China's exports of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) totaled 8,200 tons, a decrease of 0.52% month-on-month and a decrease of 12.23% year-on-year. From January to December 2025, cumulative exports reached 99,900 tons, an increase of 18.84% year-on-year.

Technical Classification of Natural Rubber

In December 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical classification) totaled 199,300 tons, an increase of 18.10% month-on-month and an increase of 66.34% year-on-year.

Natural Latex

In December 2025, imports of natural latex totaled 58,100 tons, an increase of 23.15% month-on-month and an increase of 11.64% year-on-year.

Smoked Sheets

In December 2025, imports of smoked sheets totaled 45,900 tons, an increase of 29.46% month-on-month and an increase of 103.05% year-on-year.

Blends of Natural and Synthetic Rubber

In December 2025, China's imports of blends of natural and synthetic rubber reached 396,300 tons, up 31.16% month-on-month and 4.55% year-on-year.

2. Import and Export Trend Chart

Global Rubber Production

The latest ANRPC report for November 2025 predicts that global natural rubber production in November is expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; natural rubber consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. For the first 11 months, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, while cumulative consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons.

Global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons. Global natural rubber consumption is projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year to 15.565 million tons in 2025. Specifically, Thailand's consumption is expected to rise by 1.2%, Indonesia's by 4.3%, China's by 6%, India's by 5.6%, Vietnam's by 1.3%, Malaysia's by 4.2%, Cambodia's by 5.6%, Myanmar's by 5.3%, and other countries' by 3.5%.

Note: Global natural rubber consumption data is based on the latest figures and is for reference only.

Natural Rubber Inventory Analysis

Qingdao's inventory continued to accumulate in January. Imports maintained growth, while inventory continued its seasonal accumulation. The end-market remained lukewarm. After tire companies restocked before New Year's Day, January saw a strategy of primarily digesting existing inventory and making small-scale replenishments at low prices. Inventory expectations are rising.

Analysis of Natural Rubber Demand

Tires

In January, the operating rate of semi-steel tires in China was 71%; the operating rate of all-steel tires was 61%.

During the month, tire companies showed significant differences in production, with operating rates fluctuating. Some semi-steel tire companies with a large proportion of EU exports gradually saw their export orders increase, leading to increased production within the month.

Other companies maintained production control, resulting in limited increases in the operating rate of semi-steel tires. For all-steel tires, the month was a seasonally low period, with slow shipments and high overall inventory levels. To control inventory growth, some sample companies maintained production control, dragging down the operating rate.

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