炭黑特刊-20260129号

Carbon Black Market Analysis

1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis

This week, domestic carbon black prices remained relatively stable, with slight upward trends in some regions. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6600 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6900 yuan/ton.

New orders in the carbon black market remained stable this week, but negotiation pressure increased. The decline in new order bidding prices for raw material coal tar during the week dragged down market negotiations due to cost factors. Furthermore, after the previous price increases, actual transaction volume was limited, mainly consisting of small, sporadic transactions.

The carbon black market operating rate was low before the holiday, and large factories reduced production lines to avoid inventory accumulation. The market expected a decline in new order negotiations due to the drop in raw material prices. It is anticipated that actual order negotiations will remain stagnant, and downstream procurement prices will continue to decline.

1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis

According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of January 29th, the carbon black price index was 6809.5, an increase of 22.5 compared to the previous period.

2. Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar

This period saw the high-temperature coal tar market enter a downward trend. Although this decline seemed sudden, there were signs beforehand. Firstly, last week's price increase for high-temperature coal tar exceeded market expectations, indicating a weak foundation for the rise. Secondly, downstream products performed poorly, especially anthracene oil, which experienced significant sluggish sales, weakening the willingness of deep-processing enterprises to maintain prices.

Furthermore, news of some downstream factories shutting down in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, reduced demand for coal tar. As negative factors gradually increased, Anhui Linhuan initiated an auction, significantly reducing the participation of downstream factories and leading to a price decline.

Subsequently, prices in all major producing areas declined to varying degrees, demonstrating a downward trend in the coal tar market. In the short term, downstream factories continue to stock up, and there is still some demand in the market. However, without new positive catalysts, the market remains weak.

2.2 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Anthracene Oil

This period saw an expectation of a decline in the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong, with end-users being relatively passive in their market entry. This week, the price of high-temperature coal tar, a raw material, declined sharply from its high level. This significant drop in costs has a bearish impact on the anthracene oil market.

The operating rate of coal tar deep processing plants decreased during the week. Although the overall supply of anthracene oil decreased slightly, the market still maintains a supply-demand imbalance. Holders are cautiously lowering their offers.

The downstream anthracene oil hydrogenation market showed poor recovery before the Spring Festival. The carbon black market, facing weakening raw material prices, continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Overall, the anthracene oil market lacks positive factors this week, and actual transactions remain stagnant, with room for further price declines.

3. Carbon Black Market Outlook

Looking ahead to the next period, new order negotiations in the domestic carbon black market are stalled, with offers remaining high. However, sporadic small-volume transactions are occurring, indicating significant negotiating pressure. Meanwhile, the willingness to sell at lower prices is decreasing, and cost pressures are high, leading to continued high offers in the carbon black market and a strong wait-and-see attitude among market participants.

4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis

Taking Shandong as an example, the price of raw material coal tar has fallen further, while the carbon black market price has temporarily stabilized, but a further decline is expected. Downstream markets have begun inquiries, but their ability to accept high prices is limited. Even after the price decline, the carbon black market is expected to remain unprofitable. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -145 yuan/ton, an increase of 310 yuan/ton compared to last week.

5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week

5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating rate of sample carbon black enterprises has declined slightly. Some large factories have chosen to reduce production lines to decrease inventory, resulting in significant market pressure and dampening enterprises' enthusiasm for operating. Downstream demand was generally weak before the holiday. Under the influence of negative demand factors, the carbon black market operating rate is expected to remain low.

5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 74%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 63%.

During the period, some semi-steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and their production schedules increased slightly, which supported the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment performance of all-steel tires was sluggish, and some enterprises still had production control, which dragged down the operating rate slightly.

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