聚丙烯市场每周分析更新

Domestic petrochemical inventories: Polyolefin inventories of both crude and crude oil products reached 670,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from yesterday.

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Futures Analysis: The PP2601 contract price fell to a relatively low for the day in the evening session on September 4th before fluctuating narrowly. Prices fluctuated and consolidated in the morning session, recovering slightly, and remained volatile in the afternoon session. Opening price: 6940, high: 6948, low: 6915, with a spread of 33. Opening volume: 595,380. Settlement price: 6930. Yesterday's settlement price: 6962, a decrease of 32. Daily trading volume: 207,771 lots. Deposited funds: 2.892 billion yuan. Inflow: 69.91 million yuan.

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Mainstream market quotes for wire drawing:

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Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market showed an overall weak consolidation trend. Market prices in North China, East China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China have all declined compared to yesterday, fluctuating between 10 and 50 yuan/ton. Regarding prices, the mainstream domestic polypropylene price ranges from 6,750 to 7,090 yuan/ton. Currently, PP manufacturers' ex-factory prices are generally stable, with some showing some variation.

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Some companies have reduced prices by 20 to 150 yuan/ton, while a few specific grades have seen slight increases. Market participants are cautious and the atmosphere is subdued, with transaction volumes falling short of expectations. Downstream demand is weak, with purchases primarily focused on replenishing inventory, and no large-scale stockpiling plans are in place. Traders are cautiously offering discounts and small price adjustments to boost transactions. This is because core downstream PP sectors, such as weaving and injection molding, are in the off-season. For example, in the weaving industry, shrinking demand for end-use packaging has led to low operating rates. This has also reduced PP raw material procurement.

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Weakened downstream support has left upstream suppliers with little incentive to raise prices. Consequently, manufacturers are adopting a strategy of "maintaining price stability with limited adjustments," with traders simultaneously offering discounts to maintain supply and demand balance.

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Market Forecast: The domestic polypropylene market is currently impacted by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Positive factors include the continued US sanctions on oil-producing countries and geopolitical uncertainty, which are supporting costs. Negative factors include OPEC+'s insistence on increasing production, coupled with the weak global economic performance, which is suppressing overall demand expectations.

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On the supply side, Ningxia Baofeng's PP plant is scheduled to shut down today for maintenance, with an estimated maintenance period of 20 days. This may cause some short-term supply disruptions in some regions. Demand continues to recover slowly, yet has yet to provide effective support for the market. It is worth noting that the market is approaching the traditional peak demand season of September, and some participants are anticipating an improvement in demand.

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However, judging by the current recovery progress of downstream markets, these expectations have yet to translate into substantial purchasing momentum, and the boost to the market is currently insignificant. Taking into account these bullish and bearish factors and the current market situation, the polypropylene market is expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term.

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Traders will continue to prioritize price stabilization to facilitate transactions, and there will likely be room for firm negotiations. Continued attention should be paid to the pace of downstream demand recovery and the fulfillment of expectations for the September peak season.

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Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index was 6909.00 on September 4th, down 16 points, or 0.23%.

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GuoNeng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 1709 tons, a 14.16% increase from yesterday; 346 tons were sold, a 69.99% decrease from yesterday, with a 20.25% fill rate, a 56.77% decrease from yesterday.

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