天然橡胶主要地区（2025年5月19日）

1. 泰国生产区

目前，泰国生产区的采收过程符合季节规律。新鲜的橡胶在采收初期的产量较小。再加上近期频繁的降雨干扰，原材料价格持续上涨，供应量低于预期。大型泰国工厂的原材料库存大约在25-35天，最多为40-60天。

工厂的原材料库存储备各不相同，维持正常生产和长期交付。从成品利润的角度来看，泰国STR20的理论生产利润略有改善，但仍处于亏损状态。

近期原材料杯胶价格持续反弹，工厂的成本压力依然存在。在海外关税政策放宽后，国内外市场价格上涨超出预期，工厂报价随之上涨。STR20的理论生产利润略有改善，出货情绪有所回升。

2. 越南生产区

近期越南生产区降水量增加，对橡胶采割产生了一定影响。

目前的采割率大约在40%-50%之间，短期原材料价格保持高位。然而，总体来看，新鲜橡胶的产量逐渐恢复到正常水平，越南的橡胶加工厂基本上恢复了正常的橡胶收集、生产和发货。

鉴于乳胶订单相对较差以及出口利润倒挂，加工厂的生产热情相对较低，橡胶优先投入3L生产线。

目前，成品的产量普遍不多，主要供应给当地及欧美等海外市场。接下来，越南的生产区域将逐渐进入增产期，整体割胶面积将继续扩大和增加，但我们也必须继续关注降雨和其他天气的影响。

3. 云南生产区

最近，云南生产区有很多雨天，橡胶农民的割胶率不足，原材料产出有限，短期原材料供应仍然紧张，各个地区仍然存在原材料抢购现象。

加工厂的采购价格保持高位，进一步支撑了原材料交付的高水平。总体来看，今年的收割时间较早，原材料提前消耗，集中供应较去年同期有所推迟。结合最近的降雨天气，胶水生产释放缓慢，整体原材料供应紧张。

The inventory of processing factories has been exhausted, and most factories are now in operation. As overseas production areas gradually begin harvesting, the import of raw materials from Laos has increased, alleviating the tight supply of dry rubber raw materials. Currently, the operation levels of processing factories are uneven, with an overall operational load of about 60-70%.

4. Hainan Production Area

Recently, the Hainan production area has been significantly disrupted by rainfall, hindering the development and promotion of rubber tapping.

The speed of new rubber is relatively slow. Reports indicate that daily rubber collection across the entire island has decreased, falling below the levels of the same period last year. Meanwhile, driven by price increases in the futures and spot markets, local thick milk processing factories are eager to purchase glue, which in turn has pushed up the procurement prices for glue this week.

Currently, the production costs of Hainan processing factories have risen, but downstream demand lacks actual positive improvement. It is difficult to trade at high prices in the market, which squeezes the profit margins of processing factories and to some extent dampens their enthusiasm for collecting rubber and production.

In the short term, the circulation of raw materials in the Hainan production area cannot meet the production needs of various processing factories, and it is expected that raw material prices may remain high.

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