天然橡胶市场先涨后跌。

市场回顾：节后，下游行业已恢复运营和生产，生产节奏有所改善，有助于库存消耗，从而在一定程度上推动了橡胶价格上涨。而在供应方面，泰国东北部天气好转，市场普遍预期产区将集中增产，导致原材料价格进入下行趋势。

加之节后中美关税问题的不确定性，天然橡胶市场的看跌情绪加剧，橡胶价格的上涨趋势由此止步，并转入下行通道，整体重心环比呈下移态势。

Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding post-holiday Sino-US tariffs, bearish sentiment in the natural rubber market has intensified, halting the upward trend in rubber prices and entering a downward trend, with the overall center of gravity shifting downward month-on-month.

供应方面：降雨有所缓解，导致原材料产量增加。国际产区情况：泰国东北部和北部地区的降雨已有所缓解，而南部地区则因降雨不规律而受到影响。

虽然原材料价格可能继续呈现分化态势，但总体上仍低于节前水平。越南产区天气好转，橡胶供应已恢复正常。在工厂国内采购需求的支撑下，橡胶价格波动幅度有限。

国内生产区域：

云南地区的降雨干扰仍在持续，但整体影响较小。由于加工成本高企、利润倒挂，加工厂的原料采购价格出现小幅下降。海南地区受阴雨天气影响，供应增长放缓。然而，在持续加工利润亏损的压力下，当地加工厂普遍不愿采购原料，导致橡胶采购价格下跌。

总体而言，全球主要产区的天气状况预计将有所改善，从而减轻对……的影响。

Domestic production areas: Rainfall disturbances persist in Yunnan, but the overall impact is minimal. Processing plants, constrained by high processing costs and inverted profits, have seen a slight decrease in raw material purchase prices. Rainy weather disruptions persist in Hainan, slowing supply growth. However, under pressure from persistent processing profit losses, local processing plants are generally reluctant to purchase raw materials, leading to a decline in rubber purchase prices.

Overall, weather conditions in major producing areas around the world are expected to improve, mitigating the impact on 橡胶敲击。原材料产量开始增加，导致原材料价格略有下降，并推动成本回落。

下游需求：随着维修企业恢复工作和生产，需求依然强劲。

对于半钢轮胎而言，与上周相比，全季节轮胎市场的活动有所下降，渠道补货减少，零售门店的销量也保持平稳。

交易价格基本保持稳定。雪地轮胎的需求正在上升。随着中国东北地区气温降低，以及黑龙江迎来初雪，雪地轮胎的需求显著增加，零售店的销量也随之提升，渠道补货的预期也更加强劲。

对于全钢轮胎而言，替换市场需求较为低迷。尽管部分轮胎制造商已实施了提价措施，但市场情绪依然疲软。为保持渠道客户的稳定性，市场交易仍以先前的价格为主。

Transaction prices remained largely stable. Demand for snow tires is rising. Cooler temperatures in Northeast China and the arrival of the first snow in Heilongjiang are driving increased demand for snow tires, increased sales at retail stores, and stronger expectations of channel restocking.

For all-steel tires, replacement market demand is sluggish. While some tire manufacturers have implemented price increases, market sentiment remains subdued. To maintain channel customer stability, market trading continues to focus on prior prices.

[市场预测]

海外产区的天气持续改善，预计产量将大幅增加，这可能会导致价格出现一定程度的下行走势。节后，下游市场整体表现并未出现明显好转。为了控制库存积压，一些公司仍在实施灵活的生产调控措施，这使得工厂在短期内整体运营保持稳定。由于缺乏显著的基本面因素推动橡胶价格，价格可能会出现波动并走弱。

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To control inventory buildup, some companies are still implementing flexible production controls, leading to generally stable plant operations in the short term. With no significant fundamental drivers driving rubber prices, prices may fluctuate and weaken.

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