天然橡胶: 波动率定调 (6月8日)

Index

On June 8th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2320/ton, down $35/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market

Supply Side:
Internationally: Recent rainfall has decreased in northeastern Thailand while increasing in the south, leading to a continued increase in raw material supply, though the increase is limited. Localized thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in Vietnam's producing areas have disrupted tapping operations at times, but the overall production cycle remains strong.

Domestic: Sporadic rainfall in Yunnan's producing areas has led to rising raw material prices. Localized rain in Hainan's producing areas has had limited impact, and with the easing of high temperatures, tapping operations are proceeding smoothly, maintaining seasonal production increases.

Demand Side: It is understood that tire companies' export orders are below expectations, and domestic sales are sluggish. Overall, the industry is experiencing slow inventory reduction, and tire company inventories are increasing. Under pressure from both production and sales, some companies are considering production cuts or shutdowns, dragging down overall tire output.

Futures and Spot Prices Overview

Market Outlook

Today, futures prices weakened amid fluctuations, and spot offers followed suit, with limited willingness among holders to sell at lower prices. Overseas rainfall disrupted rubber tapping, increasing delivery pressure on factories and boosting restocking demand, supporting high raw material prices. Traders anticipated a decline in future shipments, maintaining upward pressure on rubber prices.

Downstream inquiries were weak, with only small-scale restocking at lower prices to meet immediate needs. Trading activity was subdued, and with increased divergence between bulls and bears in the short term, rubber prices are likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

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