严寒天气导致供应减少，原油价格受到强有力支撑

1.Marketreview

Thisweek‘smaincrudeoilfuturescontractfluctuatedduringtheweek.AsofFriday’sclose，theSCcrudeoilmaincontractclosedat566.3yuan/barrel，较上周五收盘下跌0.65%。

由于市场对需求和前景感到担忧，ThegeopoliticalcrisisintheRedSeaescalatedintheearlypartoftheweek，油品库存低于预期，andexpectationsofaninterestratecutbytheFederalReservewereshaken.Oilpricesfell.Lateintheweek，修正了需求和预测，导致andtheextremecoldweatheraffectedU.S.oilproduction，价格反弹。

截至周五收盘，themainBrentcrudeoilcontractclosedatUS$79.15/barrel，up1.06%fromlastFriday；themainWTIcrudeoilcontractclosedatUS$74.07/barrel，较上周五上涨1.79%。

2.Supplyanddemandanalysis

克鲁德石油供应本周的情况

OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)productionanalysis

OPECoilproductioninDecemberwas26.7millionbarrelsperday，同比下降7.7%，与11月份的产量相比有所增加。

U.S.crudeoilproductioncontinuestoremainathistoricallyhighlevels.AsoftheweekendingJanuary5,2024，theaveragedailyproductionofU.S.crudeoilwas13.2millionbarrels，whichwasthesameastheaverageproductionofthepreviousweekandanincreaseof1millionbarrelsfromtheaveragedailyproductionofthesameperiodlastyear.Thatweek，U.S.crudeoilexportsaveraged3.322millionbarrelsperday，adecreaseof1.970millionbarrelsperdayfromthepreviousweek.

Thenumberofoilandgasrigscontinuestodecline.BakerHughes‘U.S.oilrigcountfellbytwoto499intheweekendedJanuary12.

OilproductioninkeyU.S.shaleoil-producingregionsisexpectedtodeclineforthefifthconsecutivemonthinFebruary，theEIAsaidinitsmonthlydrillingproductivityreportonTuesday.TheEIAsaidU.S.oilproductionisexpectedtofallto9.68millionbarrelsperdayinFebruary，mainlyduetodecliningproductionintheEagleFordandBakkenregionsandslowingproductiongrowthinthePermianBasin，生产区域。此外，在北达科他州，根据北达科他州管道管理局的规定，thelargestoil-producingstateintheUnitedStates，oilproductioninthestateisexpectedtohavedroppedbymorethanhalfduetoextremecoldandoperationalchallenges.Oilproductioninthestatefellby650,000-700,000barrelsperday，。

3.Russiancrudeoilsupply

Russia’sseabornecrudeoilshipmentsrecordedgrowthinthelatestweekdespitebeingaffectedbyshippingattacksinthesouthernRedSea.RussiahasfailedtodeliverontheexportcutsitpromisedtoitsOPEC+allies.Tankertrackingdatamonitoredbyrelevantagenciesshowthatapproximately3.43millionbarrelsofcrudeoilwereshippedoutofRussianportsperdayinthefourweekstoJanuary14，aweeklyincreaseof94,000barrelsperday.Thevolatileweeklyaverageincreasedby166,000barrelsto3.45millionbarrels.Whilethat‘s134,000barrelsbelowaverageexportlevelsinthetwobasemonthsofMayandJuneit’sstilllessthanhalfoftheproductioncutsMoscowhascommittedtoitsOPEC+partnersinthefirstquarterof2024.

本周原油需求量

TheIEAhasraiseditsdemandforecastforthethirdconsecutivemonth，predictingthatglobaloilconsumptionwillincreaseby1.24millionbarrelsperdayin2024，anincreaseof180,000barrelsperdayfromthepreviousestimate.Theagencynotedthatthiswasduetoimprovedeconomicgrowthandlowercrudeoilpricesinthefourthquarter.

OPEConWednesdayforecastoildemandgrowthof2.25millionbarrelsperdaythisyear，unchangedfromitsDecemberforecast.TheOrganizationofOilProducingCountriesalsosaidthatoildemandwillgrowstronglyby1.85millionbarrelsperdayin2025to106.21millionbarrelsperday.

12月份，theprocessingvolumeandoperatingrateofU.S.refineriescontinuedtoincrease.AsofDecember2023，theaveragedailyprocessingvolumeofU.S.refineriesthatmonthwas16.9millionbarrelsperday，whichwashigherthanthesameperiodinhistory.TheU.S.refineryoperatingratewas92.38%inNovember，的价格偏高。

2024年1月18日，theoperatingrateofChina‘srefinerieshasrebounded，的主要炼油厂开工率为67.13%，高于历史同期。

PreliminarycalculationsshowthattheannualGDPwas126,058.2billionyuan，计算不变价格，比上年增长5.2%，达到预期目标。从季度来看，第四季度GDPgrewby4.5%year-on-yearinthefirstquarter，6.3%inthesecondquarter，4.9%inthethirdquarter，and5.2%inthefourthquarter.Onaquarter-on-quarterbasis，GDP增长1.0%。

DatafromtheGeneralAdministrationofCustomsshowsthatChina’scrudeoilimportsinDecemberwere48.36milliontons，acumulativeyear-on-yearincreaseof11.0%fromthepreviousyear，andthegrowthratecontinuedtoslowdown.ThedeclineinChina‘simportgrowthhastriggeredmarketconcernsaboutweakdemandfromChina.

4.Inventoryanalysis

ˆU.S.crudeoilinventoriesfellby2.5millionbarrelsintheweektoJanuary12to429.91millionbarrels，comparedwithexpectationsforadecreaseofabout300,000barrels.CrudeinventoriesattheCushing，俄克拉荷马州，warehousewhereNYMEXcrudeoilfuturesaredeliveredfellby2.1millionbarrels，theEIAsaid.U.S.gasolineinventoriesincreasedby3.1millionbarrelsto248.07millionbarrels，comparedwithexpectationsforariseofabout2.2millionbarrels.Duringtheweek，蒸馏油库存，其中包括柴油和加热炉，roseby2.4millionbarrelsto134.75millionbarrels，comparedwithexpectationsforariseofabout900,000barrels.

IV.Investmentstrategiesandsuggestions

TheRedSeacrisiscontinuestoescalateandhasevolvedintoamilitaryconflictintheMiddleEast.Atthesametime，U.S.crudeoilproductionhasbeenaffectedbyseverecoldweatherandthesupplyhasbeenreduced，whichhasstrongsupportforoilprices.Onthedemandside，OPECandIEAmaintainedrelativelystrongdemandestimatesforglobaloilthisyearandnextyeartoboostoilprices，，但市场对未来需求的担忧依然存在。

内部库存、提供支持的alarger-than-expecteddecreaseincrudeoilinventoriesthisweekisbullishforoilprices.ThelatestU.S.inflationdataexceededexpectations，shakingexpectationsforaratecutbytheFederalReserve.Takentogether，、需求提升和库存减少、oilpricesareexpectedtoreboundslightlynextweek.